El Niño winter is coming in USA

Even though fall has just started, it’s not too early to start thinking about winter, especially since El Niño could make this one look very different from previous years.

The phenomenon, which has a significant influence on the weather during the coldest months of the year, will not be felt for the first few years this winter.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation, which measures changes in water temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and can have repercussions on weather patterns worldwide, comprises three stages, with El Niño being one of them. When these ocean temperatures are warmer than average for an extended period of time, it is known as the El Niño phase.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, El Niño this year started in June and is predicted to be strong this winter and at least through early next spring.

The South may see an increase in the likelihood of wintry precipitation, such as freezing rain, sleet, and snow, due to a combination of lower temperatures and more frequent precipitation.

In the North, from the Pacific Northwest to the Rockies, Plains, and Midwest, El Niño usually results in warmer winters. While isolated storms are still possible and can bring periods of extremely cold temperatures or substantial snowfall to these areas, they are usually less common.

This would be detrimental to the snowpack in the Pacific Northwest, which is a vital source of water for the region, as well as to areas of the Midwest that are currently experiencing high and exceptional levels of drought.

The past three US winters have been greatly influenced by El Niño’s cooler counterpart, La Niña, which has kept the South dry while bringing much-needed snow to areas of the West.

The Climate Prediction Center’s early winter predictions bear many of the characteristics of normal El Niño winters, signaling impending changes.

How might this winter pan out?
While no two El Niño winters are same, many of them share similar tendencies in precipitation and temperature.

Conditions typical of the continental United States during an El Niño winter.
Conditions typical of the continental United States during an El Niño winter.
The location of the jet stream, which frequently moves south during an El Niño winter, is one of the main causes. According to NOAA, this change usually sends cooler, wetter weather to the South and warmer, drier weather to the North.

The jet stream, which storms travel through like a river of air, allows them to travel across the South more frequently during an El Niño winter. Precipitation increases with storm activity, usually from the southern Plains to the Southeast. For drought-stricken states like Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, this might be essential.